Quantify how declining sprint throughput taxes your budget. Compare current output against a baseline from 12 months ago to see the financial impact of debt-driven velocity decline.
This is an educated estimate, not an audit. Story points are a relative, team-specific unit — comparisons are most meaningful within the same team over time, not across teams. Figures assume delivered points are a reasonable proxy for value delivered, which isn't always true (scope inflation, easier tickets, etc.).
Use this to frame a conversation about whether declining throughput deserves investment, not as a precise forecast.
Modeled ranges for how unmanaged technical debt tends to erode sprint throughput over time. The relationship is not linear — as complexity compounds, later declines tend to be steeper than earlier ones.
| Debt level | Typical debt share | Quarterly velocity loss | Annual velocity loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low | Under 15% | −1 to −2% | −5 to −8% |
| Moderate | 15–25% | −3 to −4% | −12 to −15% |
| High | 25–40% | −5 to −7% | −20 to −25% |
| Critical | 40%+ | −9 to −12% | −35 to −40% |